If you buy something using links in our stories, we may earn a commission. This helps support our journalism. Learn more. Please also consider subscribing to WIRED
In the field of scientometrics, one of the most well-known (and oft discussed and criticized) metric for scientific output and productivity is the h-index. The h-index for a scientist is simply the number of papers you've published, N, that have been cited at least N times. So if your h-index is 10, it means you have published ten papers that have been cited at least ten times (with likely more papers published that have been cited fewer times). While one should make tenure decisions based on the h-index at one's own risk, there are nice correlations between h-indices and tenure and even entry into the National Academy of bet365体育赛事s.
But can you predict what your h-index will be in the future? A team of scientists from the University of Chicago and Northwestern University think so (paper here). Using some machine learning techniques, they have developed a fun little formula that can predict your h-index years out using a small number of inputs, and do this with reasonable precision:
There is even an interactive version of the calculator available. Throwing in some numbers, it looks like my h-index will be 13 in about five years and 19 in ten years.
Of course, take this equation, and any ensuing results, with a heaping portion of salt (as the authors themselves advise). Not only was the equation derived from a population of scientists working primarily in neuroscience, but the predictions are far less accurate as the timeframe being examined increases.
Similarly, the h-index needn't be the only metric one takes into account. Scientific success is dependent and measured via numerous factors, such as "interdisciplinary breadth, the length and quality of training, the amount of funding received and even the standing of the scientist’s PhD adviser," as the authors note. And even further, we need to broaden the metrics we use with which to assess scientists, as I have previously argued.
But while neither one's h-index nor the predictions of this equation are destiny, playing with this formula certainly is fun.
Top image:Research Development and Engineering Command/Flickr/CC
