Has Dominic Cummings’s eye-test-by-driving jaunt broken Britain’s lockdown? There is some evidence that it has. On May 31, a De Montfort University survey of 1,201 people found that the number of Britons flouting social distancing guidance because they didn’t agree with the rules had more than doubled – from four to nine per cent – in the aftermath of the revelations about Cummings’s trip to Durham.

Mobility data from Apple shows a similar trend. On May 13, the day the government eased the lockdown rules, the number of users asking for driving directions was still only 55 per cent of what it was in January 2020, pre-coronavirus. That grew steadily: by May 22 – three days before Cummings’s unapologetic press conference on the May 25 – the level of searches had grown back to almost 72 per cent of what it was back in January. On May 29, the level of people looking for driving directions had jumped to 84.43 per cent – the highest since the start of the lockdown.

Figures on people searching for walking directions tell a similar story: from 50.92 per cent on May 13, to 79.38 per cent of the baseline level by May 30. The average level of people searching for walking directions went from 59.2 per cent of pre-lockdown usage in the May 13 to May 24 timespan, to 71.9 per cent in the period May 25 to May 30. Google also compiles mobility data based on Google Maps queries, but its most recent data only goes as far as May 25.

Traffic congestion data from sat-nav firm TomTom is more reassuring. The company keeps tabs of people’s mobility through a measure called congestion level, which calculates how long it takes for a driver to complete on a given day, as opposed to if the road was completely clear. Looking at figures for major cities does show small upticks in the congestion level in recent weeks. In London, for instance, the average congestion level in the 12 days preceding Cummings’s press conference – May 13 to May 24 – was 22.5 (meaning it would take 22.5 per cent longer to finish a journey than on a day with free-flowing traffic); in the May 25 to May 31 period, that had grown to 23.7. In Newcastle, the average congestion level for May 13 to May 24 was 15.75, while in the following six days that had increased to 17. But the change is minor, and in some cities – like Manchester – not present at all.

Another possible proxy to gauge the UK’s compliance with lockdown is internet activity. Australian firm Kaspr DataHaus assesses the quality of internet connections to glean insights about various social and economic trends. During the coronavirus crisis, it has measured peaks in internet connectivity to understand how many people were staying at home – and likely using the internet to kill time.

The company checked tens of thousands of internet-connected devices in the UK – chiefly in London – to get a sense of how well lockdown is holding. Comparing data on internet activity in London before and after May 25, Kaspr spotted a noticeable decrease in recent days.

“There is a substantial reduction in online activity in general” company co-founder Simon Angus says. In the week of May 25, the number of devices coming online was consistently lower than it had been in the previous weeks – the number of active devices slumped in some cases from the usual 10,000 Kaspr has captured during usual lockdown days, to less than 5,000. This points to fewer and fewer people staying at home – even if it is possible that they were still at home and just decided not to use the internet.

It is, of course, impossible to lay these changes at Cummings’s feet. While several experts have pointed out that the spectacle of a senior government figure not respecting the lockdown might undermine the public’s trust in the government’s coronavirus response, it is likely that many factors are at play here. The incredibly sunny days; the government’s announcement that some lockdown rules would be loosened starting on June 1; overall lockdown fatigue.

Whatever the reason, it is clear that the UK’s tolerance for staying locked down is eroding.

Gian Volpicelli is WIRED's politics editor. He tweets from @Gmvolpi

This article was originally published by WIRED UK