In the 20-second TikTok video, two men wrestle inside what looks like a shop selling notebooks and iphoness cases. One of them appears to be drunk, and he is shouting “Glory to Ukraine!”—demanding the other man say it as well. Together, they stagger across the room. The video was posted to Facebook on March 4 with a caption that reads: “How Ukrainian emigrants are behaving in Moldova.”

The authenticity of the TikTok videos that are spreading rapidly on Facebook is not in doubt—although there is uncertainty about where the two men were filmed in this particular clip, because a “share the video” message hides a sign that could hint at the store’s locations. But the way videos like this one are amplified across different platforms point to a coordinated campaign, according to Valeriu Pașa, president and chairman of Watchdog.MD, a Moldovan think tank that has been tracking disinformation and online influence campaigns. Pașa shared 100 examples of Facebook posts, mostly videos, that he called “manipulated content about the war in Ukraine,” although 28 had been taken down by Facebook as of April 7. Out of the 72 links that were still available to view on the platform, 20 were reposts of TikTok videos.

Moldova, a small ex-Soviet nation sandwiched between Ukraine and Romania, has been suffering from what researchers describe as “an explosion” of disinformation since war broke out in Ukraine. In a type of smear campaign against Ukrainian refugees, researchers say, real videos that express anti-refugee messages are being artificially amplified across both Facebook and TikTok. Around 400,000 people have arrived in Moldova from Ukraine, according to the United Nations’ refugee agency, UNHCR. Around 100,000 have stayed in the country, meaning right now it is the European country with the highest number of refugees per capita.

People in Moldova say the reality in the country is starkly different from the version that this online influence campaign is promoting. There has been a huge effort to support Ukrainian refugees arriving in Moldova and help them access food and housing, says Iulian Groza, executive director of the pro-European think tank Institute for European Policies and Reforms. “Disinformation activities are actually targeting this unity and solidarity and trying to create tensions.”

The country is suffering from what its president, Maia Sandu, calls a “concerted and organized effort to divide society on the issue of refugees.” On April 7, Facebook parent Meta published a report that said it had identified government-linked actors from Russia and Belarus engaging in cyber espionage and covert influence campaigns online. Although the report did not mention Moldova, experts are concerned that influence campaigns are also taking place in the country in an attempt to destabilize one of Europe’s poorest nations, ahead of a possible invasion.

“Russia is really trying to keep Moldova in its sphere of influence,” says Peter Stano, spokesperson for foreign affairs and security policy at the European Commission, which runs a website dedicated to debunking pro-Kremlin messages. “They are also using disinformation to create confusion in the public domain and of course to promote Russian identity, Russian narratives, and the Russian model of governing the country in order to take away the support for the European direction of the country.”

The video of the two men wrestling has been shared 41,000 times on Facebook, although the post was taken down on April 7, after WIRED brought it to the platform’s attention. The TikTok account that originally posted it was taken down overnight on April 6. Posts that are shared more than 10,000 times are very unusual for Moldova, a country of just 2.6 million people, says Pașa. Watchdog.MD estimates that of the 2.1 million adults living in Moldova’s government-controlled territory, just 1.4 million use Facebook regularly, and 315,000 use TikTok.

“I would define Moldova as being in the midst of an information war,” says Vadim Pistrinciuc, executive director at Chișinău-based think tank the Institute for Strategic Initiatives.

What the people behind this campaign do most is search for authentic content, which feeds their needs, says Pașa. Once that content has been identified, usually on TikTok, it is uploaded to Facebook where fake profiles spread the video across the platform, he adds.

“They [use] tens of thousands of fake profiles and are sharing this content to different groups or simply on the timelines of these fake accounts,” Pașa says. Not only does this make a video more prominent on Facebook but it also tricks TikTok’s algorithm into showing it more on that platform. “In this way, they artificially make this content, which is usually a video, go viral.”

Meta declined to provide a statement attributable to a named spokesperson in time for publication.

"We are currently assessing the situation for potential violations of our community guidelines, which prohibit inauthentic behavior,” says TikTok spokesperson Sara Mosavi.

On March 4, the TikTok user @hozyayka1997, a young woman who appears to be a Ukrainian refugee, filmed a new video. Looking straight into the camera, she launches into a stream of complaints about how Ukrainians refugees are treated in Germany. She talks in Russian, and her face is framed with a black fur hood. At one point in the one-minute video, she turns the camera to show where she is sitting—in a dirty-white tent, filled with long benches. She talks about how the German authorities made Ukrainians wait for hours in the cold, without food or water. “Are we people or cattle?” she asks.

The video, which has been watched 650,000 times on TikTok, was reposted on Facebook by an account that posts a huge amount of pro-Russia content and has 3,700 connections. Between the video’s Facebook comments criticizing the woman for wearing makeup and fur, one user says: “Look at the profile of the person who posted the video, it's a provocation.”

In another TikTok video, a woman who claims to be from south Moldova says refugees are demanding “luxury”–they don’t like their accommodation or their food, which they “throw on the floor.” She tells them to go back to their country if they don’t like Moldova.

When the video was reposted onto Facebook on March 10, a Moldovan flag was positioned to conceal the TikTok username of the person who originally posted it. Before it was taken down by Facebook on April 7, it was shared 15,000 times.

TikTok and Facebook are not the only platforms where disinformation has spread. Pistrinciuc points to a channel on Telegram called Major and General, which has 439,000 subscribers. “They post every five minutes, so it's clear there is a full team behind it,” he says. On April 6, the channel posted 51 times. Telegram did not reply to a request for comment.

The small country of Moldova might seem like a strange target for a disinformation campaign. It’s one of Europe’s poorest nations. It’s landlocked and therefore has no strategic ports or trade routes. But if Putin was going to push deeper into Europe, experts say, this small strip of land would likely be his next target. Like Ukraine, Moldova also has its own breakaway region, Transnistria, where around 1,500 Russian soldiers are stationed.

“The Russians look as if they're preparing the ground politically for a takeover of Moldova,” says Michael Clarke, former director-general of defense think tank the Royal United Services Institute. “They're running the same type of [disinformation] campaigns in Moldova as they’ve run in the Donbass in the southeast of Ukraine since 2014.”

However, Clarke believes an imminent invasion of Moldova is less likely as the war progresses and Russian troops shift their focus to Ukraine’s east. “Personally, I don't think they will now achieve [a takeover of Moldova], but I think that was part of their initial design.”

Instead, there is a sense that Moldova’s fate hinges on Ukraine’s port city of Odesa, just 30 miles away from Transnistria. “If [the Russians] had taken Odesa relatively easily, as they expected to, they might have just kept going and moved into Moldova, or their troops in Moldova might have moved east to actually join up with Russian troops in Odesa,” says Clarke, adding that those two scenarioses looked plausible two to three weeks ago. “Taking Odesa now doesn't look as if it's a major priority for them. It may return as a priority, but not at the moment.”

Despite the shift of focus in Ukraine, attempts to destabilize Moldova have continued online.

However, attempts to turn people in Moldova against Ukrainian refugees have not worked. Many Moldovans have welcomed Ukrainians into their homes in response to the conflict. International donors have been funneling money into the country to help them cope with integration efforts. The government is trying to better regulate disinformation on online platforms, proposing a new law on April 6.

But people aren’t holding out for these rules to solve Moldova’s disinformation problem. “Just think about the Moldovan government; it doesn't have too much leverage to put pressure or impose rules on the platforms,” says Pașa. “Let's be honest, this should be a joint action for the big countries.”

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