Hî, I'm John Carmack.

I'm the chief technology officer for Oculus.

I work on virtual reality.

I've been challenged today to talk about one concept

at five levels of increasing complexity.

So we're going to be talking about reality and virtual

reality, what the technology allows us to do today,

what it may allow us to do in future, and whether

that should even be our goal to approximate reality.

So do you know what virtual reality is?

Yes, its simple.

Its like a video game except it feels like

you're in the video game.

That's actually a really good description.

The idea is that if you've got a system here that can make

you see whatever we want you to see, then we can make you

believe that you're anywhere else, like on top of

a mountain, or in a dungeon or under the ocean.

Or in Minecraft.

Yeah, or in Minecraft.

When you look at a TV on the wall there showing like

a picture of a mountain or something,

how can you tell that its not just a window

and there's something else behind it.

Because it always doesn't look quite right

if you have a static picture of a person on a screen

and you move around like this, its not really changing.

And its interesting, those are things we have to figure out

We need to figure out when you look at something in reality

how can you tell whether its real or not.

Have you been to a 3-D movie

where you put on the little glasses?

Yeah.

So what they do, the trick for that is, if you ever

at a theater and you take up the glasses and you look

at it, you'll see its blurry where there's actually

two pictures that they're showing at the same time.

And what those little glasses do, is they let one eye

see one picture, and the other eye see a different picture.

So then your eyes can say, oh it looks like I'm seeing

through the screen or something is floating out

in front of it.

In the VR headsets, what we do is, there's actually either

two screens or one screen split in half,

so that it draws a different picture,

completely different picture, for each eye.

And we make sure that each eye can only

see the picture it intended to.

And that's what can make things feel like they got this real

depth to them, that its something that you could reach out

and touch and it doesn't feel like a flat TV screen.

Try look over there and concentrate on his face over there.

Can you see me waving my hand without turning your eyes?

No.

Alright, so, at some point,

you can probably see it right now?

So without moving your eyes, this is kind of hard,

tell me how many fingers I'm holding up?

Uh, three?

You can just barely tell.

And you can see that even, like if you hold out your hand

and you focus on your hand, then your foot would be blurry

because there's that difference there.

And you can change between that, like you can then focus

on your foot and your hand gets blurry.

Because your eyes can see different amounts of detail

in different places.

So we're hoping in the future,

that hardware can be like that.

Where we can make a display that puts lots of detail

right where you're looking.

And every time you look someplace else,

it moves the detail over to there.

So we don't need to render a hundred times

as much as we've got right now.

Figuring out where you're looking is a pretty hard problem.

What we try to go about this, is by taking a camera

and looking at people's eyes and then try to figure out

is the eye looking over here or up here.

We're working hard on stuff like this right now

so we hopefully can have a virtual reality that's

as detailed and realistic feeling

as the reality that we've actually got around us.

But its going to be a long time before we get to

where we can really fool people.

So do you have a basic sense of what latency is?

Yeah, so my understanding of what latency is,

is its basically the time delay

between the rendering at different points.

Its basically a delay and it happens in all parts

of the system: monitors can be a big one.

Like consumer televisions can often have 15 milliseconds

or more of latency just in the TV part.

And then you've got the processing and the computer

and all of these add up to the total latency.

The latency is, in my opinion, the most important part

of VR, because if you have that offset your body is

no longer immersed and you getting that motion sickness

which can pull a lot of people out of the experience.

Games that feel really good, they've got that sense

of it happens instantly when you're doing something.

It really is a testament to this kind of technology

and how its developing and how over time its gonna just be,

you're gonna be able to pack more pixel density in those

displays and its gonna get a lot more immersive.

30 years ago, you had desktop PCs which were,

you spent whatever on that, but there was always this idea

well you could spend a million dollars and buy

a super-computer and its gonna be a lot faster.

And that's not really true today.

For scalar processing, when you just do one thing after

another, a high-end, overclocked, cool gaming PC

is about the fastest thing in the world.

It is within a very small delta, yeah for some things

you'll get some IBM power system that might be

a little bit faster, but not a whole lot.

So if I'm looking at this and saying

we need to be five times faster.

What do you do?

You can't just say make each thing faster.

As a developer you're making a trade-off,

I can put my effort into making this more efficient

or making it more fun.

And more fun usually wins out for very good reasons.

So there's some good judgment and trickery

that goes into the design of things.

But you can always just design a game

that will just not work well. (laughing)

I mean in the old days, games had to be

so precisely designed.

Nowadays you've got a ton more freedom.

You really can--

Just the hardware.

Old games were ran off of 8 bit

and that's all the data you could have.

Yeah, any crazy idea you had now you could probably make

a pretty good video game out of it.

Which is a wonderful, wonderful thing.

Yeah, a lot of freedom.

But VR makes, you have to give up a little bit of that

freedom, you have to not do so many crazy things,

so you can wind up having it be as responsive

and high quality as it needs to be.

That's very interesting.

You know an interesting topic is: what are the limits

to what we can do with virtual reality?

Where I'm pretty pleased with what we have today.

What we can show people and say virtual reality, its cool.

People get an amazing response from it.

But we're still clearly a very, very long ways from reality.

That kinds of notes back to Realism in our history

and how Realism was a response to Romanticism.

And Realism was meant to capture the mundane,

everyday lives of individuals and not idealize

any of their activities in any way.

And I think that that's really important

for virtual reality.

I think its kind of rite-of-passage for any kind

of our technology to go through.

Mostly in VR we talk about the display and optics,

the visual side of things,

but we should at least tick off the other senses.

And haptics is an interesting thing about virtual reality

really doesn't have that aspect of touching things.

You can move your hands around, you can do everything

but its a disconnected experience because you know

you don't have an actual solidity there.

And I am pessimistic about progress in haptics technology.

Almost all other areas I'm an optimist and I'm excited

about what's coming up, but I don't have any brilliant

vision about how we're going to revolutionize haptics

and make it feel like we're touching the things

in the virtual world.

So I've tried the demos, at VRLA there's one that has

waves, like audio waves I believe, that come up

and then you can put your hands through that and feel

the waves whenever you're supposed to be feeling bubbles

or any kind of force field or something.

And those are pretty interesting.

I've seen some pretty interesting things that you can do

with audioses, you can cut down a lot of the storage I guess

and the power that you would need in order to power a huge

scene, you can just mimic the sounds of those scenes

actually being there and they're not actually.

For example, a professor at USC would have the sound of

a train drive by without actually rendering the sound.

And you would feel like you're deeply immersed in this world

without having to have such an expensive scene

built around you.

So I think those are pretty significant.

Yeah, that is one potential quality improvement that

is still on the horizon is when we do spatialization,

we use HRTF, the Head Relative Transfer Function,

to make it sound like its in different places.

But usually we just use this one kind of generic,

here's your average human, HRTF function.

Its possible, that of course, if you are right

in the average then its perfect for you.

But there's always people off to the extremes,

that it doesn't do a very good job at.

And there may be better ways to allow people to sample

their own perfect HRTF which can improve

the audio experience a lot.

It all comes down to all these trade-offs.

You know, with display and with resolution, its one

of those things where if people have one bad experience

they kind of, oh well everything else.

Its really difficult to build trust again with people

who haven't done VR before but its easy to break off

that trust when they have a bad experience.

There was a huge concern about that at Oculus.

And the term internally that went around

was poisoning the well.

They were very, very concerned.

I mean for a long time there was a fight about whether

gear VR should even be done, because the worry was

if we let a product go out,

like gear VR that didn't have those things.

That if somebody saw it and it was bad, made them sick,

made their eyes hurt, then they would be like

I'm never going to try VR again.

I tried it that time and it was terrible.

And there was legitimate arguments about whether

it was even a good idea to do that.

And it turned out that yes, its obviously better to have all

those things, but you can still do something

that's valuable for the user without it.

Its weird being at the beginning of a medium like this.

Right, I'm very excited to see how filmmakers tackle

creating content and those things.

Especially if they're experienced with traditional medium.

Mostly today, I've been talking a lot about

what can we do, what's possible.

We think might be possible in the next couple of years.

But really at the professional level its more

the question of wisdom of what should we be doing.

That's one of the things we're trying to figure out,

from an artist and storytelling perspective, what are

the things that will make this meaningfully different

from what we're used to, like a television on our wall.

And we've been finding a lot of things, aspects

of virtual reality that very much do that in my opinion.

Things that allow you to feel presence, first and foremost,

where you get lost, and you have to remind yourself,

this isn't actually happening.

And things that ultimately allow you

to embody other characters.

Things where you can actually change your

own self-perception and play with neuro-plasticity

and teach yourself things that are bizarre and unique.

As an engineer of course, I love quantifiable things.

I like saying here's my 18 millisecond motion to photon,

here's my angular resolution that I'm improving.

I'm doing the color-space right.

But you can look not too far back where you say we

have blu-ray DVDs at this amazing resolution,

but more people want to watch Youtube videos

at really bad early internet video speeds.

Where there are things that if you deliver

a value to people then these objective quantities

may not be the most important thing.

And while we're certainly pushing as hard as we can

on lots of these things that make the experience better

in potentially every way or maybe just for videos

or for different things.

I don't think that its necessary.

I've commented that I think usually my favorite titles

on mobiles that are fully synthetic are ones that don't

even try, they just go and do light-mapped, black-shaded.

And I think its a lovely aesthetic.

I think that you don't wind up fighting all of the aliasing.

While you get some other titles that, oh we're gonna

be high-tech with our specular bump maps with roughness.

And you've got aliasing everywhere,

and you can't hold frame rate and its all problematic.

While some of these that are clearly very synthetic worlds

where its nothing but these cartoony flat-shaded things

with lighting, but they look and they feel good.

And you can buy that you're in that place.

And you want to know what's around that monolith over there.

We did a project called Life of Us,

which was exactly that mindset.

We were let's embrace low-poly aesthetic

and just simple vertex shading.

And we ended up realizing, you can embody

these various creatures and transform yourself.

And when you do that with co-presence of another creature,

another human, it makes for a totally magical journey.

You don't even think for a second, you actually dismiss

the whole idea of photo-realism

and embrace that reality for what it is.

I think it actually helps put you at ease a little bit.

The end goal of reality, of course in computer graphics

people chase photo-realistic form for a long time.

And basically, we've achieved it.

Photo-realism, if you're willing to throw enough discreet

path traced rays at things,

you can generate photo-realistic views.

And we understand the light really well.

Of course it still takes a half hour per frame

like it always has, or more, to render the different things.

So its an understood problem and given infinite computing

power we could be doing that in virtual reality.

However, a point that I've made to people in recent years

is that, we are running out of More's Law.

Maybe we'll see some wonderful breakthrough in quantum

structures or whatever--

Or bandwidth, or streaming.

But if we just wind up following the path that we're on,

we're gonna get double and quadruple, but we're not gonna

get 50 times more powerful than we are right now.

We will run into atomic limits on our fabrication.

So given that, I'm trying to tell people that, start buying

back into optimization, start buying back into thinking

a bit more creatively.

Because you can't just wait, its not going to get to

that point where it really is fixed to those highest degrees

just by waiting for computing to be advanced.

If we want this to be something used by a billion people

then we need it to be lighter, cheaper, more comfortable.

And there's constantly novel UX innovations.

Like Google Earth, where the kind of elimination of

your periphery as you zoom in and move.

And also, giving you the user action to decide

where you're going and looking.

I'm constantly seeing people coming up with ways to break

from the paradigms of actual reality and then introduce

mechanisms that work very well.

You know there's tons of opportunities for the synthetic

case where you want to be able to have your synthetic

fantasy world where everybody is a creature

that's created by the computer and simulated reasonably.

But of course we've got, you know we still

don't do people well simulated.

That's a hard problem, we've been beating

our heads against it for a long time.

I do think we're making progress and I wouldn't bet

on that being solved in 10 years, but maybe 20 years.

Because it is going to take a lot of AI.

Its going to take a lot of machine-learning,

where its not going to be a matter of us dissecting

all the micro-expressions that people do.

Its gonna be lets take every youtube video ever made

and run it through some enormous learner

that's going to figure out how to make people realistic.

Absolutely, there are these crucial thresholds

where you pass a technological hurdle and all of a sudden

that unlocks a whole world of creative potential.

But I think, to your point very much, we need to solve

the actual human and social challenges and turn those

into opportunities to figure out

how this technology fits into our lives.

I'm still a believer that the magic's out there.

We haven't found it yet, so somebody's going to

happen upon the formula.

I feel like I've felt little pockets of magic.

You can imagine the utility behind this for creating a world

or you can imagine the power of a story that would be told

to you in this context.

And a lot of it is just picking those, putting them together

in a meaningful way and then crafting something

that's really bigger and intentional.

But I've now been joining with real people

in virtual reality.

I think we also have different levels of connection.

Like the audio side is leaps and bounds above in terms

of the nuance and personality and humanity.

When I hear people laughing and joking

and really enjoying something.

Soon we'll get into that.

We're in macro-gestureland,

where I can wave and say thumbs-up.

But when we get into micro-gestures and actually getting

a sense of facial reactions and other things I think

then we'll have a really incredibly rewarding time,

spending time with each other.

So VR right now is pretty amazing.

When you look at it its things that you haven't seen.

But we are just getting started.

The next five years both technologically and creatively

are going to really take this medium someplace

that you've never imagined.